Bottom Line Up Front:
A new NPR/Marist poll shows that nearly one-third of Americans now say political violence may be necessary to “get the country back on track.” It’s the highest level of support for violence in modern polling history — and with troop deployments and efforts to cast the Democratic opposition as “terrorists,” the president is turning the poll into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
WHAT HAPPENED
According to the poll, 30% of Americans now say political violence may be necessary, up 11 points since April 2024. For context, I was stunned in 2022 when surveys showed one in ten Americans supported violence against the government to restore Donald Trump to office. That seemed to be an enormous figure; higher than anything I’d seen while in government.
But it’s far worse now. Based on this survey, more than 100 million Americans think physically attacking each other might be the only solution. Sadly, the support for violence is shared across party lines. That includes 28% of Democrats, more than double the 12% who said so just 18 months ago; 31% of Republicans and 25% of independents now say the same.
The poll arrives in the wake of multiple high-profile acts of political violence, most notably, the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk, which has become a flashpoint for Trump’s push to expand domestic surveillance and militarize the response to dissent.
WHAT IT MEANS
In a wide-ranging discussion I had yesterday with radio legend and best-selling author Thom Hartmann — about his new book The Last American President (video above) — we unpacked the deeper implications of these trends. Thom deemed this “the stress fracture moment,” the point when civil society splinters, not because of one event, but because of a climate of violence, disinformation, and power consolidation.
“How bad is it right now?” I asked him.
“We are halfway down the road or perhaps further along the dictator’s playbook,” Thom said. “Trump is absolutely following that.”
We are ten months into Donald Trump’s second term, and instead of putting out the fire, the White House is fanning the flames. Trump’s reaction to the Kirk assassination is sure to worsen attitudes toward political violence across the board. The Justice Department has launched a sweeping “domestic terrorism” campaign targeting left-leaning groups, while troops are being deployed into American cities. The result is a dangerous convergence: rising public support for violence and a government that increasingly defines dissent as extremism.
America is “in a really grim place,” Thom continued, noting that Trump’s moves mirror tactics used by autocrats from “Putin and Orban … all the way back to Caligula.” He warned that the administration’s militarization and terror designations are not random; they are designed to actually provoke political violence rather than combat it.
“Perhaps most importantly [political violence] gives license to fascist leadership to crack down. Nixon used the riots in the late ’60s and early ’70s for his law‑and‑order campaign. Trump, it sure looks to me like, is trying to gin up violence. He wants that B‑roll that Fox continually runs … because they can use that to justify really seriously cracking down as Trump tried to do.”
WHAT’S NEXT
We are entering a period of extreme volatility. The assassination of a political figure would, in a healthy democracy, lead to soul-searching and de-escalation. Instead, Trump’s team is using it as a pretext for escalation by expanding surveillance, turning domestic opposition into a national security threat, and deploying the military into American streets under the banner of “law and order.”
The coming months will test whether Americans are willing to resist this authoritarian pivot, peacefully. According to Thom, the vital lesson from history — from the Civil Rights Movement to foreign efforts to resist autocracy — is nonviolence. The Trump administration is hoping the opposition overreacts and gives it license for an even harsher crackdown. We can’t give them what they want. And given the recent polling from NPR, this will be a challenge.
So what’s Portland doing? They’re the target of Trump’s next provocative troop deployment. But so far, Thom says, people aren’t lighting buildings on fire or throwing rocks at officers. They’re preparing “an emergency naked bike ride.” You read that correctly. Portlanders are going to ride through the streets nude. It sounds absurd, but history teaches us that dictators are weaker when they’re being widely mocked than when they’re being resisted with violence.
And that’s a lesson we should all pay attention to.
P.S. WHAT’S HAPPENING ON TREASON
Here’s what’s coming up:
Today / Fri (4p ET) - Barbara Starr is back! - I’m delighted to say that former CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr will join me Friday to talk about everything from Portland to Trump’s meeting with military officials this week. You don’t want to miss it. You can join here.
Weds, Oct 8 (4:30p ET) - Congressman Robert Garcia on shutdowns & censorship - Rep. Garcia is the leading Democrat on the House Oversight Committee, the ones holding the Trump administration’s feet to the fire. Join us for a wide-ranging discussion about the current government shutdown and the administration’s unprecedented Censorship War. You can join here.
Thurs, Oct 9 - Support James Comey - This is the day former FBI Director James Comey will be arraigned in federal court. It’s also the day I expect Donald Trump will “leak” Comey’s mugshot. I hope you’ve picked up a copy of one of Comey’s books and are prepared to respond by posting photos of it.
Fri, Oct 10 (5:15p ET) - Stacey Abrams tells us what a real resistance looks like - She’s been on a roll. Georgia politician, lawyer, and Democratic leader Stacey Abrams has given a lot of thought about what needs to happen next. Come find out what that is. You can join here.
